Why the Federal Reserve Is Unlikely to Cut Interest Rates in 2025

The Federal Reserve appears poised to keep interest rates elevated for the remainder of 2025, signaling a continued "wait-and-see" stance on monetary easing. Despite market hopes for cuts, recent labor market data and inflationary signals—coupled with geopolitical uncertainty—suggest that policymakers are in no rush to pivot.

Fed's Monetary Policy: Firmly on Hold

According to analysts at BofA Securities, the Federal Reserve is unlikely to implement any rate cuts this year. The key driver behind this cautious approach is a slower-than-expected rise in the U.S. unemployment rate, which has tempered urgency around monetary easing.

• The federal funds rate is currently expected to remain within the 4.25% to 4.5% range at the upcoming FOMC meeting.

• The CME FedWatch Tool reflects just a 50% probability of a cut by September, with no firm consensus among market participants.

This restrained outlook marks a notable shift from prior expectations of early-year cuts and highlights the Fed's focus on inflation control over short-term growth support.

Labor Market Forecasts Signal Gradual Softening

Bank of America's internal models suggest that the U.S. labor market will continue to cool—albeit gradually:

• Nonfarm payrolls are now projected to average 50,000 jobs per month in H2 2025, down from an earlier estimate of 70,000.

• The unemployment rate is expected to rise by 0.1 percentage points per quarter, reaching 4.4% by Q4 2025, and peaking at 4.5% in mid-2026.

These projections factor in structural shifts, including:

• A tightening supply of labor due to immigration restrictions.

• Uncertainty around hiring plans amid ongoing federal spending pullbacks and tariff-driven disruptions.

Despite this upward drift in joblessness, the overall labor market remains historically strong, giving the Fed room to remain patient.

Inflation: The Tiebreaker in the Fed's Decision

If unemployment is the long-term guidepost, inflation remains the short-term tiebreaker for Fed decisions. And the current trajectory of core inflation leaves little room for dovish maneuvers:

• The Fed's preferred inflation gauge—Core PCE—is forecast to climb to 3% this summer, well above the 2% target.

• Consumer prices for tariff-exposed goods have shown renewed upward momentum, adding further strain on headline inflation.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell has emphasized that the inflation outlook must improve sustainably before considering any rate adjustments. In light of this, analysts believe the central bank sees no compelling case to cut rates in 2025.

Market Implications: Caution, Not Complacency

Markets are currently pricing in a modest chance of easing by late 2025, but BofA's forecast suggests investors should recalibrate those expectations. The firm macroeconomic backdrop—marked by sticky inflation and resilient employment—makes an extended hold the most likely scenario.

Key Metrics to Watch:

• Unemployment Rate: Expected to rise to 4.4% by Q4 2025.

• Nonfarm Payroll Growth: Revised to 50,000 per month in H2 2025.

• Core PCE Inflation: Projected to hit 3% by summer 2025.

Complementary Data for Analysts and Investors

To support strategic macroeconomic and portfolio planning, analysts can turn to high-frequency economic data, such as:

• Economics Calendar - Economics Data: Stay updated with scheduled Fed meetings, employment releases, and inflation reports.

• Key Metrics (TTM): Track macro-sensitive metrics across key U.S. sectors impacted by rate policy.

Conclusion

The Federal Reserve's monetary policy for the remainder of 2025 is best characterized by restraint, not reversal. Slowing job growth, controlled rises in unemployment, and persistent inflationary pressures all suggest that the Fed will remain cautious. For financial executives and strategists, it's a signal to prepare for a prolonged high-rate environment—where risk calibration and real-time economic tracking become essential.