S&P 500 Gains, But Q1 Ends in the Red as Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ Tariffs Loom

Market Recap: S&P 500 Ends Q1 Lower Amid Trade Uncertainty

The S&P 500 closed higher on Monday, recovering from six-month lows, but the index still ended the first quarter down 5%, snapping its five-quarter winning streak.

📈 Major Index Performance (Monday's Close):

• Dow Jones: +431 points (+1%)

• S&P 500: +0.5%

• NASDAQ Composite: -0.2%

Investors remain cautious as President Donald Trump's April 2 “liberation day” deadline for additional trade tariffs approaches.

Trump's Tariffs: The Next Market Catalyst?

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt confirmed that upcoming tariffs will be country-based, rather than sector-based.

📌 Key Tariff Developments:
✔ A 25% tariff on all non-American cars takes effect April 2.
✔ Additional tariffs on commodities, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals are expected.
✔ Markets fear higher inflation and slower U.S. economic growth due to rising import costs.

🔴 Goldman Sachs Outlook:

• 35% chance of a U.S. recession in the next 12 months.

• Inflation is likely to stay above the Fed's 2% target in 2025.

Key Market Events This Week

March Jobs Report - A Crucial Indicator

The U.S. labor market remains a critical focus, with several job-related data releases this week.

📊 Key Expectations for March's Jobs Report (Friday Release):

• 139,000 new jobs added (vs. 151,000 in February)

• Unemployment Rate: Expected to hold steady at 4.1%

📌 Other Economic Releases Before Friday:
✔ Private hiring data
✔ Job openings figures
✔ Manufacturing activity reports

💡 Last week's PCE inflation report—the Fed's preferred inflation gauge—came in hotter than expected, raising concerns that the Fed may delay rate cuts.

Stock-Specific Moves

📉 Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) - Q1 Deliveries in Focus
Tesla is set to release first-quarter deliveries data on April 2. Analysts expect a decline, citing:
✔ Weaker demand
✔ Protests at showrooms due to Elon Musk's political controversies

📉 CoreWeave (NASDAQ: CRWV) - Falls Post-IPO
Nvidia-backed CoreWeave saw a 7% drop, continuing a weak performance after its Friday IPO.

📈 Mr. Cooper Group (NASDAQ: COOP) - Jumps on Buyout Deal
Shares soared 14% after Rocket Companies announced a $9.4 billion acquisition of the mortgage services firm.

📉 Vaccine Stocks Slide After FDA Shakeup
Shares of Novavax (NVAX), Taysha Gene Therapies (TSHA), and Solid Biosciences (SLDB) plunged after Peter Marks, a top vaccine official, resigned amid concerns over Trump's federal health agency overhaul.

Tracking Market Trends - Real-Time Data

To stay updated on the latest market movements, check out these APIs:

• Sector Historical API
  Track historical sector performance to gauge trends amid tariff-related uncertainties.

• Earnings Calendar API
  Get insights into upcoming earnings reports, including Tesla's Q1 delivery numbers.

Conclusion

With Trump's tariff plans looming, economic uncertainty remains high. Investors are closely watching the jobs report, inflation trends, and corporate earnings for clues on market direction.

🔎 Investor Takeaway:
✔ Will tariffs trigger a market downturn, or will the economy hold strong?
✔ How will the Fed respond if inflation stays elevated?
✔ Are you prepared for potential volatility ahead?