Oil Pauses Rally as Inventories Rise and Geopolitical Moves Grab Attention

Oil prices eased in Asian trade on Wednesday after a four-day rally, as an unexpected build in U.S. crude stocks and President Trump's Middle East visit tempered earlier optimism from a U.S.-China tariff truce and softer inflation data.

H1: Crude Prices Slip Amid Inventory Bump

• Brent (June): -0.4% to $66.38/barrel

• WTI (June): -0.4% to $63.01/barrel
  (as of 22:02 ET / 02:02 GMT)

After jumping over 2.5% on Tuesday—near a two-week high—both benchmarks retraced as the American Petroleum Institute reported a surprise rise in U.S. crude inventories.

Tariff Truce and Inflation Data Fuel Rally

Monday's U.S.-China Deal

• U.S. cuts China tariffs to 30% (from 145%)

• China trims U.S. duties to 10% (from 125%)

• 90-day pause spurred a risk-on shift, lifting oil on stronger demand prospects.

Softer U.S. Inflation

• April CPI rose 2.3% YoY (vs. 2.4% expected) and 0.2% MoM

• Contained inflation reinforced hopes that lower tariffs won't reignite price pressures—supporting economic growth and crude demand.

Middle East Developments Under Scrutiny

• Trump in Saudi Arabia:

  • Vowed to lift Syria sanctions

  • Secured $600 billion in Saudi investments for the U.S.

• Iran Sanctions: U.S. Treasury targeted firms shipping Iranian oil to China, adding supply-side uncertainty after recent nuclear-dialogue progress.

Inventory Surprise and Technical Levels

The API's weekly report showed U.S. commercial crude stocks rose unexpectedly—contrary to forecasts for a draw—capping gains. Traders will await the EIA's official inventory data for confirmation.

Tracking Real-Time Oil Prices

Stay on top of shifting benchmarks and futures curves—such as contango/backwardation—via the Commodities API, which provides live and historical quotes for Brent, WTI, and other energy commodities.

What to Watch

1. EIA Inventory Release: A larger-than-expected build could push prices lower.

2. Gulf Political Signals: Any further U.S.-Gulf cooperation or Iran tensions will influence supply forecasts.

3. Trade Negotiations: Progress beyond the 90-day tariff pause could underpin longer-term demand growth.

By combining real-time oil data with key inventory and geopolitical events, investors and traders can navigate the next inflection points in the crude market.