Gold Rebounds as Trade and Geopolitical Risks Drive Haven Demand

Most Asian markets' safe-haven flows lifted gold sharply on Thursday, reversing this week's pullback amid persistent doubts over a U.S.-China tariff thaw and a fresh Russia-Ukraine clash.

Price Action

• Spot Gold: +1.3% to $3,331.34/oz (01:37 ET)

• June Futures: +1.4% to $3,341.25/oz

• Weekly High: Near the record $3,500/oz set earlier this week

• JP Morgan Forecast: Eyes $4,000/oz by 2026

Key Drivers

H3: Trade War Uncertainty

• Tariff Talks Stumble: Trump's conditional promise to lower 145% tariffs on China—only if Beijing approaches Washington—has energized skepticism.

• Bessent's Reality Check: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent cautioned that trade negotiations will be a “slog,” with no shortcut to de-escalation.

• Yuan and Dollar: A weaker dollar amid tariff fears has boosted bullion's appeal.

H3: Geopolitical Flashpoint

• Russia-Ukraine Clash: Renewed hostilities in Eastern Europe sent investors back into traditional havens like gold and the Japanese yen.

H3: Fed Policy Ambiguity

• Powell Threats Eased: Trump's retreat from firing Fed Chair Powell has calmed, but not eliminated, fears about U.S. monetary independence—keeping real rates and gold yields attractive.

What's Ahead for Gold Traders

1. Russia-Ukraine Developments: Any escalation could trigger additional safe-haven inflows.

2. U.S. Trade Announcements: Watch for concrete tariff reduction plans or fresh levies.

3. Macro Releases:

   • U.S. CPI/PCE Data: Inflation readings will determine real interest rates.

   • Flash PMIs: Provide early clues on growth and demand trends.

Stay on Top of Market-Moving Events

Track upcoming economic and geopolitical data—trade negotiations, inflation reports, and central bank meetings—with the
🔗 Economics Calendar - Economics Data API
from Financial Modeling Prep.
This API delivers real-time scheduling and historical context for the indicators driving gold's next moves.