European Earnings Growth: Q4 2024 Weakness and 2025 Outlook

Earnings per share (EPS) growth estimates for Q4 2024 in Europe have been significantly revised downward, now projected at just 2%, according to Barclays (LON:BARC). This sharp reduction reflects widespread corporate guidance cuts and subdued economic activity. By comparison, U.S. EPS growth estimates have seen a less severe downgrade to 8%, highlighting regional disparities.

Key Factors Impacting European EPS

1. Muted Economic Activity:

   • Sluggish economic conditions in H2 2024 capped European equity performance.

2. Currency Dynamics:

   • The euro (EUR) and pound (GBP) weakened significantly against the U.S. dollar (USD) in Q4, a development seen as a tailwind for European exporters. However, this benefit is not fully reflected in EPS estimates yet.

3. Recovery Signals:

   • Expansionary Global PMIs (Purchasing Managers' Index) and favorable base effects from 2024 could set the stage for mild growth in 2025.

2025 EPS Growth Projections

Barclays forecasts a 4% increase in European earnings for 2025, slightly below the 7% IBES consensus. This estimate assumes:

• Global nominal GDP growth at approximately 5%.
• Stabilization of corporate margins to support mid-single-digit EPS growth.

Risks to the 2025 Outlook

Despite some positive indicators, several challenges could weigh on European earnings:

1. Weak Domestic Demand: Persistent economic sluggishness in core European markets.
2. Trade and Chinese Activity: Ongoing uncertainty surrounding global trade and China's economic recovery.
3. High Interest Rates: The “higher-for-longer” monetary policy environment continues to pressure financing costs and margins.

Relevant APIs to Monitor Economic and Earnings Trends

1. Earnings Calendar API

Stay updated on quarterly earnings announcements to assess real-time corporate performance.
Access earnings schedules here.

2. Historical Earnings API

Analyze past earnings trends to contextualize growth projections and base effects.
Review historical data here.

3. Sector Historical Overview API

Compare sector-specific performance across Europe to identify industries driving EPS growth.
Explore sector trends here.

Conclusion

While Q4 2024 earnings paint a cautious picture for Europe, improving economic conditions and favorable currency dynamics could provide support in 2025. Investors will be closely watching corporate earnings and economic data for signals of stabilization, even as risks like weak domestic demand and elevated interest rates linger.